Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 0.050129 0.056957 0.064589 0.073791 0.084639 0.097084 0.112532
2026-01-04 0.042067 0.051102 0.062068 0.076510 0.095252 0.119066 0.152127
2026-01-11 0.035471 0.045620 0.058850 0.077698 0.104423 0.141852 0.199898
2026-01-18 0.030213 0.040890 0.055739 0.078499 0.113628 0.167799 0.261946
2026-01-25 0.025414 0.035958 0.051484 0.076909 0.119366 0.191169 0.330971
2026-02-01 0.021222 0.031204 0.046654 0.073497 0.121679 0.210582 0.404095
2026-02-08 0.018655 0.028500 0.044522 0.074103 0.131389 0.247562 0.534352
2026-02-15 0.016546 0.026186 0.042623 0.074775 0.141822 0.291325 0.712511
2026-02-22 0.014932 0.024439 0.041398 0.076504 0.155371 0.349448 0.980739
2026-03-01 0.013514 0.022810 0.040098 0.077852 0.168992 0.416437 1.352150
2026-03-08 0.012022 0.020821 0.037770 0.076521 0.176152 0.471776 1.761459
2026-03-15 0.010397 0.018354 0.034091 0.071341 0.171895 0.492013 2.063979
2026-03-22 0.009492 0.017181 0.032921 0.071948 0.184494 0.579777 2.888146
2026-03-29 0.008824 0.016382 0.032413 0.074130 0.203216 0.708428 4.323617
2026-04-05 0.008133 0.015441 0.031433 0.074894 0.218367 0.840705 6.315221
2026-04-12 0.007507 0.014549 0.030417 0.075345 0.233218 0.991996 9.315332
2026-04-19 0.006833 0.013465 0.028767 0.073580 0.239500 1.110846 12.833781
2026-04-26 0.006157 0.012294 0.026724 0.070150 0.237964 1.187404 16.518155
2026-05-03 0.005747 0.011675 0.025967 0.070560 0.253143 1.398890 25.696500
2026-05-10 0.005384 0.011120 0.025284 0.071057 0.269531 1.654449 41.513729
2026-05-17 0.005098 0.010711 0.024919 0.072567 0.292267 2.017327 74.366148
2026-05-24 0.004825 0.010300 0.024482 0.073734 0.314665 2.443061 138.751103
2026-05-31 0.004493 0.009704 0.023439 0.072410 0.323085 2.754709 229.830270